Canada's Housing Bubble

Sale/List suffered a record drop from 152% to 31% in Greater Vancouver

Jan 12, 2010 Glenn MesichMedia

Is 2010 a good time to sell your house and down size? Is the market in Greater Vancouver still buoyant? Are the prices of homes ready to freeze or change?

The market is still seems buoyant; prices are still higher than they were a few months back; and sales are still brisk. Usually the market cools in December. The holiday season usually has a big negative impact upon the number of homes listed and sold. This year the impact was not as profound as in other years. Although the number of sales dropped it did not drop as much as what one might have expected. The year ended with a 3 week trend where sales out paced listings and supply dwindled.

Can one expect this New Year to begin like the old year ended? Well maybe. In the first week there were three times as many new listings as there were units sold and the prices seemed to hold. It is true that both listings and sales rebounded from the holiday lull, but sales did not keep pace with listings.

This statistic may very likely represent home owners delaying listing until the start of 2010 represented by the spike in new listings in the first week of January. The holidays are a time when families get together and frequently life change plans develop. Home purchase can be one of these plans. Deciding to sell and buy elsewhere and deciding not to buy are both possible planning outcomes. The holidays give people more time to reflect and discuss and make plans with families.

What story will the statistics for the rest of the month tell us? Is it likely sales will remain strong? Is the comparative slower growth of sales compared to the stronger listings growth a trend marker that we will look back upon as identifying the bubble margin? Or are we seeing just a seasonal response that will be matched with sales in a short time? It is hard to say right now because a week doesn’t make a trend.

Look at the following information. 1015 new listings the first week of 2010, Sell to list 31%, Courtesy of Agent Will