Canada's Housing Bubble

Dec 01, 2010 Myke Thomas calgarysun.com

Calgary resale home prices declined 2.2% in September from August, the second consecutive month to show a decrease, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™.

The decrease in Calgary compares to a national decline of 1.1%, month-over-month, based on results from five other cities measured by Teranet, ending a 16-month run of increases.

However, on a national level, prices were up an average of 7.9% year-over-year, with all six cities showing increases, which varied widely by market : 9.2% in Vancouver and Ottawa, 9% in Toronto, 7.6% in Montreal, 3.6% in Halifax and 1.7% in Calgary.

The year-over-year increases suggest a soft landing for housing markets that were considered red-hot last year, says Marc Pinsonneault, a senior economist at National Bank Financial.

“September’s drop notwithstanding, we do not think that a significant price correction looms in housing,” said Pinsonneault, pointing to balanced market conditions as reflected in recent new-listings-to-sales ratios.

Pinsonneault added a U.S.-style wave of home foreclosures was unlikely because Canadian lenders have been far more conservative about mortgage loans than their U.S. counterparts were.

That sentiment was echoed by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who said this week he sees no sign of a housing bubble in Canada.

“I think moderation in the real estate market is a good thing.

That’s why we tightened up some of the rules this year on high ratio mortgages,” Flaherty said.